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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 30-K.Dixon right end pushed ob at CIN 41 for 12 yards (36-S.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.36 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -3.16 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model