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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Perriman (27-D.Kirkpatrick).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP