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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 8

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Pitta (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model