Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(8:11) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 34 for 12 yards (52-T.Roach).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.72 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model