Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to CIN 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 13. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 13 for no gain (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model