Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

(14:15) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model