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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 6-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TB 25, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-A.Humphries to TB 43 for 18 yards (49-S.Keo).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model