4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 3-W.Lutz 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP