4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to TB 11, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.45 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model