Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to NO 12, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis. PENALTY on TB-29-R.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NO 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model