Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 95

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at NO 44 for 6 yards (16-B.Coleman). PENALTY on NO-54-N.Stupar, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NO 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.68 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 95, worth -5.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model