Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(7:41) 9-B.Wing punts 39 yards to PHI 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. Penalty on PHI-52-N.Goode, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model