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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 35

New York Giants 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to PHI 25 for 10 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.88 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model