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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 58

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to PHI 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.55 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model