Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(8:12) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to IND 30, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model