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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 1-P.McAfee left tackle to LV 30 for no gain (56-D.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model