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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 33

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model