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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 88

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 33

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to LV 41, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND. PENALTY on IND-40-C.Milton, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at LV 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.28 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP