Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 42 – Detroit Lions 21

(1:12) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to DET 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.20 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model