4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 11

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 42

What Actually Happened

(4:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to DAL 6 for 5 yards (32-O.Scandrick). FUMBLES (32-O.Scandrick), and recovers at DAL 4. 15-G.Tate to DAL 4 for no gain (32-O.Scandrick).

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.19 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model