Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 98

Dallas Cowboys 42 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to DET 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DAL 30 for 23 yards (6-C.Jones; 51-K.Wilber).

The Three Options

GO -3.60 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 98, worth -6.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model