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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 29

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(:52) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model