Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 64

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(8:22) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to DAL 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 10 for no gain (35-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model