Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 98

Detroit Lions 21 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to DAL 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 49 for 5 yards (52-A.Williams; 51-B.Copeland). Injury update: Terrell McClain has an ankle injury; his return is questionable. Ryan Davis has a knee injury; his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -4.25 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.74 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 98, worth -6.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model