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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(4:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to DET 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. Roberts of Detroit has a shoulder injury and his return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP