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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model