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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 7 at the 53
Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14
What Actually Happened
(4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-T.Gafford, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.05 EP
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP
KICK
-2.17 EP
- 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 82% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.96 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
