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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 39

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 33

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 84-H.Krieger Coble to KC 26 for 13 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.10 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP