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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 5-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model