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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 9, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model