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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 80

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to KC 41, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 38 for -3 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model