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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 29 yards to DEN 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model