Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 67

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(8:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 16, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 19 for 3 yards (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model