Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 8, and recovers at DEN 8. 19-K.Raymond to DEN 8 for no gain (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.45 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model