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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 35

Denver Broncos 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus left end to KC 29 for 6 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.33 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP