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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to DEN 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model