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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 10-K.Huber punts 31 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.42 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model