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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 22 for 7 yards (26-J.Shaw). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.56 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model