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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 5

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 8-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 5, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model