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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 64

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 9-S.Lechler punts 55 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 7 yards (45-J.Prosch; 43-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 22, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model