Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 61

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 9 yards (43-C.Moore). PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 16. Penalty on CIN-53-M.Flowers, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.90 EP
68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model