Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 29 for 14 yards (47-P.Dawson). (The Punt Hang Time was 4.33 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model