Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

(13:23) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to HOU 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model