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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to HOU 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 17 for 1 yard (26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP