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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 68

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to BAL 13, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-M.Campanaro pushed ob at BAL 27 for 14 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model