4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.95 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model