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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.05 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model