4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to BAL 17, Center-60-G.Warren. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 28 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.35 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model