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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 27

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:38) 4-S.Hauschka 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-R.Gunter), Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. Ball rolled dead at the goal line.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.43 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model