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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 90

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 6-M.Wile punts 59 yards to SEA 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 3 yards (96-K.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -3.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.64 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model